S&P 500 Faces Rising Uncertainty Forward of Earnings Season
July 14, 2025 (Investorideas.com Newswire) Shares are set to open barely decrease – are they forming a topping sample?
On Friday, the S&P 500 index closed 0.33% decrease amid tariff-related uncertainty. Over the weekend, information of potential new tariffs on Europe from President Trump induced a pointy drop in S&P 500 futures. Nevertheless, the market has since shrugged off most of these fears, and the index is now anticipated to open simply 0.2% decrease.
Buyers are actually turning their consideration to the upcoming company earnings season, with main banks set to start reporting tomorrow. Moreover, key Shopper Value Index (CPI) knowledge can be launched, including to the importance of Tuesday’s session.
Investor sentiment stays elevated, as mirrored within the final Wednesday’s AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which reported that 41.4% of particular person traders are bullish, whereas 35.6% are bearish.
The S&P 500 continues its short-term consolidation, because the each day chart reveals.
Weekly Chart: Sideways Motion
Final week, the S&P 500 closed 0.31% decrease, following a 1.7% acquire the week earlier than. Assist stays close to the 6,150 stage – the highs from January and February – whereas resistance is at present at 6,300.
Nasdaq 100: Transferring Sideways
The Nasdaq 100 dipped 0.21% on Friday, persevering with its short-term consolidation. The index nonetheless seems to be consolidating inside an ongoing uptrend. Whereas no robust unfavorable indicators have emerged, latest worth motion might be forming a possible topping sample.
VIX Rebounded from Its Thursday Low
The Volatility Index (VIX) dropped to an area low of 15.70 on Thursday, signaling continued power in equities. On Friday, nonetheless, the VIX rebounded to a each day excessive of 17.24 regardless of comparatively calm market motion.
Traditionally, a dropping VIX signifies much less concern available in the market, and rising VIX accompanies inventory market downturns. Nevertheless, the decrease the VIX, the upper the likelihood of the market’s downward reversal. Conversely, the upper the VIX, the upper the likelihood of the market’s upward reversal.
S&P 500 Futures Contract: Fluctuations Round 6,300
This morning, the S&P 500 futures contract is rebounding from an in a single day low of round 6,258, following preliminary weak point tied to Trump’s tariff headlines over the weekend.
The index stays in consolidation, probably forming both a topping sample or a flat correction earlier than one other leg greater. Resistance is round 6,320, with assist close to 6,250.
Markets stay extremely delicate to geopolitical developments and will keep unstable within the close to time period.
Crude Oil Replace: Breaking Larger
Crude oil rose 2.82% on Friday, persevering with its rebound from the sharp June 23-24 sell-off. As of this morning, oil is up one other 1.3%, buying and selling above the $69 stage.
For oil markets particularly, these developments are price monitoring:
- Oil costs surged to a three-week excessive, pushed by expectations of tighter international provide attributable to elevated Chinese language imports and potential new U.S. sanctions on Russia.
- Market sentiment was buoyed by China’s June oil imports rising 7.4% year-over-year and a 3.4% drop in Russia’s oil product exports. Analysts additionally famous that a lot of the worldwide stock construct is exterior key areas, reinforcing provide tightness issues.
- Further upward stress got here from geopolitical tensions, as President Trump ready a significant announcement on Russia and backed additional army assist to Ukraine, whereas the U.S. and EU moved nearer to implementing new sanctions and oil worth caps.
Oil: Three-Week Excessive
Presently, crude is buying and selling above $69. Resistance is round $70-72, whereas assist is between $68-69.
My short-term outlook on oil stays impartial.
Conclusion
The S&P 500 is ready to open barely decrease on Monday. Regardless of the unfavorable open, the market tone is cautiously bullish, particularly given the fast restoration from the weekend futures drop.
With tariff-related information nonetheless circulating, investor focus will shift towards the beginning of earnings season and Tuesday’s key CPI knowledge.
Here is the breakdown:
- The S&P 500 stays in a consolidation forward of earnings and financial knowledge.
- The latest rally prolonged beneficial properties for many who purchased based mostly on my Volatility Breakout System.
- There aren’t any clear bearish indicators but, however a deeper downward correction is just not out of the query in some unspecified time in the future.
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Thanks.
Paul Rejczak
Inventory Buying and selling Strategist
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